Austin Route Choice Part 3: The Guadalupe/Lamar Alignment

In the previous two posts we discussed the history of Austin's quest for rail transit and the possible political reasons behind the current urban rail alignment.  Finally we're getting to what I feel is the most important part of this series which is making the case for the first urban rail alignment that Austin should undertake.

The reason why I believe that the Guadalupe/Lamar alignment should be the first one is for political and practical reasons.  Many pro-rail folks have written about this issue in the past 8 years so this ultimately is my way of putting more data behind those pushes. Let's go over why-

Political Future

Since 1995 Austin has had a hard time pushing forward with rail because of the politics.  Most of the time the state or rail opponents were trying to take money from Capital Metro and put it into roads.  Currently the city hasn't been able to drum up enough support to decide how to fund expansion or to have another election since the 2004 win.  Given it took 6 years to build the Red Line through fits and starts as well as technical issues, it seems like it will continue to be a hard road until a blockbuster line is constructed.

We saw this in other cities as well.  In places like Houston, the opponents such as Rep Culbertson and others have hammered away at the agency, trying to stop rail expansion at all corners.  However, because the initial line was so successful (40K Riders a day) even the ouster of a General Manager and a house cleaning at Houston Metro has not delayed expansion and three extensions are currently under construction.  In the Twin Cities, Charlotte, and Phoenix, initial lines were successful as well and extensions are pushing forward even through tough political climates.  This is the reason why a first line with killer ridership is important.  If you can silence the critics with a quality product, neighborhoods will be asking for extensions instead of opposing them.

Mining Existing Success 

According to Metro's 2010 Service Plan 2020 report, the three highest ridership bus lines in the city are the #1 (14,912), the Forty Acres UT Campus Route (8,027), and #7 (7,725).  The #1 and #7 are north-south routes that run from dense North Austin neighborhoods through UT, the State, and Downtown Austin.  The #1 specifically and its express bus compatriot the #101 garner over 17,000 riders a day.  That is a respectable number on most major corridors in medium size cities around the United States but at over double any other corridor in the city, it should stand to reason that a dedicated right of way rail line would be a great success.  The map below shows line ridership from this report.  It also shows the living density of downtown workers.  The red lines are the 1,7, and Forty Acres Loop.  Employment data was obtained from LEHD's On the Map program which uses 2010 data.

Where the People Are

Another thing the map above shows is where people who work downtown, at the University, and at the Capital Complex live in greater densities.  The dark purple areas are those which house higher concentrations of Austin's core employees.  Many of the people who are working in the densest employment center in the region are coming from North of the employment cluster, not east where the Urban Rail Line would run.  Additionally, if we're looking for additional ridership, the gross intensity of residents plus workers is highest along the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor as seen in Orange below.  Census tracts in dark green have more than 20 people per acre. This is ridership gold.

Congestion Issues on Guadalupe/Lamar

The corridor I believe should have a dedicated right of way also has a congestion issue. Given the limited number of direct north-south arterials that go through the center city, this is a significant problem. A TTI presentation on congestion made at the February 2012 (Item 3 19:45 into the presentation) transit working group meetings intimated that Guadalupe/Lamar from 6th street to 45th street is the most congested arterial in the city.  In that same meeting, Dave Dobbs mentioned the fact that NEPA documents stated that the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor was at capacity for the last two decades. The same can not be said for the east corridor leading towards the Mueller redevelopment.

But why plan a non-dedicated right of way Rapid Bus for a corridor that has extreme congestion, especially at rush hour when people are leaving work and campus? Anyone who lives in Austin can tell you that Guadalupe from MLK to Dean Keaton is a nightmare at rush hour, moving at a snail's pace.  Data from the Service Plan 2020 report suggests that the #1 bus already suffers from some of this congestion itself.  In fact it is only on time 49.4% of the time.  49.4% That ranks the line 51st out of all the bus lines in Austin in on-time performance.  Most of the time the line is too early.  But if you look at the data, the bus is late almost 20% of the time.  This is certain to affect a Rapid Bus, even with signal pre-emption and fancy stops.

And there's this problem, as much as road warriors would like to, you can't expand the road.  None of the North South arterials are going to magically expand.  With mixed use VMU coming down the pipeline bringing much needed densification, the need to move more people efficiently on the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor is going to be necessary, and welcome.  Putting more buses on the corridor isn't going to help anything other than create bunching.   Giving people an alternative that takes about the same amount of time every day is an important way to raise transit ridership as well as urban densities that create livable communities. The City of Austin seems to understand what Urban Rail would do for a corridor as shown below, however they seem to be ignoring the best corridor for this type of intervention.Why isn't Guadalupe/Lamar the target for this type of intervention?

City of Austin via Downtown Austin Alliance

This is why a dedicated right of way light rail line with significantly greater capacity is necessary on this corridor.  It would be nice to have out to Mueller but outside of the density bonus, why do it?  There's no congestion there.  There's not as much demand for service there.  And you're not going to get a ridership bang there that will give the region the political capital to build extensions fast.  My guess also is that more people have ridden the #1 bus for its utility in Austin than have ridden the #20.

The map below looks at the areas where downtown workers live and boardings.  Again using LEHD On the Map data and shapefiles from Capital Metro showing 2012 weekday boardings (Thanks JMVC and Capital Metro).  You can see that the Guadlupe/Lamar corridor has heavy boardings all the way up as do other parallel corridors moving north.  This is where the demand is coming from for trips. Riverside looks pretty good as well. 

Another thing you can spot from this is that where the dark purple is located, the boardings are heavier.  This is because the density of people that work at UT, Downtown, or the Capital is higher in those places.  Since downtown is constrained, more people are going to opt for the bus.  The same can't be said for other areas that are easily accessed. 

Goals for the System

A memo outlining goals and evaluation criteria for selecting the first segment of the Urban Rail system sent to the City Manager discusses the goals that the line should accomplish.  Mueller certainly is pointed out as the goal corridor but let's go over some of the points here and reference back with what we discussed in this and earlier posts. 

Evaluation Criteria

Provide Greater Mobility Options
1.1 Serve Existing Ridership - I hope we made the case with the maps and analysis of Capital Metro's ridership data that existing ridership is on the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor.  The number 20 Manor bus gets 1/3rd of the ridership that the #1 corridor does.  Additionally, the segment extensions from the edges of UT are approximately the same length from Cresview to 27th as the Mueller alignment (4 miles)  The current ridership on those segments is ~3,300 on the Lamar Guadalupe Corridor to Crestview and only ~600 between San Jacinto and Mueller. 

1.2 Serve New Ridership - New Ridership at Mueller is likely since the project hasn't been built out completely.  However ridership on the #1 will go up because a rail line is a much more attractive option now for downtown commuters, especially in a dedicated right of way.  UT students are already on the hook, but those who would use the line to go to the State or downtown would increase.

1.3 Support Other Modes -  Nothing will support walking and biking more than building greater densities on the Lamar/Guadalupe corridor.  The problem with the Mueller Corridor is the freeway barrier that exists. Once passing under the great wall of former East Avenue, any connections via bike or walking to the major destinations on the West side are lost to novice cyclists and walkers.

1.4 Provide Park and Ride Opportunities - If you take the Lamar/Guadalupe line north to the North Lamar Transit Center, you already have an existing park n ride.  No need to buy new property and it could serve as a place for the maintenance bay as there is industrial land approximate.

Provide Access and Linkages Between Major Activity Hubs

2.1 - There are more activity hubs on the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor north of the core than east of it.  This is proven by the existing ridership.  People have places to go.  Mueller is a wonderful place I'm sure but unlikely a major destination for students or Austin residents who don't live in the neighborhood.  However on Guadalupe there is Amy's Ice Cream, HEB's Central Market, and Changos.  Not to mention all those Hospitals, State Offices, and the Triangle.  Those seem less important than good food to me. ;)

You can see how this works from this route rendering from aerial photos from Austin's skyscraper page. 

But we're not even mentioning the core route, which on the first posts maps show all the parking garages and stadiums the line will pass.  Not the actual buildings people work in or attend classes. I'm not really opposed to either of the alignments downtown, though west is likely faster through the core, but north and east of UT is what we're concerned about the most.  Again I have no quibble with the Riverside segment as it works pretty well.  There probably isn't a need to go to the airport but whatever helps people coming in for SXSW, ACL, or Texas Relays helps.

Improves Linkages Between High Capacity Modes


3.1 Connect to Red Line - Do it further north so there is no backtracking and people can get to more destinations.  A commuter line that only runs every 30 minutes can't possibly be termed high capacity.  It does have a high capacity vehicle.  But if it doesn't go very frequently, then it isn't carrying a high capacity on that corridor.  But you could connect with the rail line further north at say Crestview station. Then people won't have to backtrack and will have a two seat ride (while not ideal, it is better) to anywhere on the great Lamar/Guadalupe corridor.

There is a proposal to connect to the Red Line at Hancock Center.  This would probably be better than the MLK or downtown alternatives, but Red River is a fairly narrow street which makes it difficult.  Ultimately students would love to use the line to go to Freebirds and HEB but outside of commute times its not much of a destination corridor.

3.2 Connect to Lone Star Rail -  Is that going to get done in anyone's lifetime?

3.3 Connect to Metro Rapid. - You'd be replacing most of Metro Rapid because there is a better mode for the corridor, urban rail.  Metro Rapid was just a trick to get the FTA to pay for colored buses and new stops with fixed guideway funding.  This type of purchase is happening around the country and is really starting to bother me as I believe this funding in the New Starts funding pot shouldn't be for Rapid Bus, it should be for actual fixed guideway projects like BRT, Streetcars, and Light Rail.  Agencies should be building Rapid Bus lines, but there are funds for that as well.

3.4 Connect to ABIA - Again, no problems with the riverside segment

Improve Person Moving Capacity

4.1  Break Through Ring of Constraint Intersections - Mueller is better than the most congested arterial in the region as a destination for creating new corridor capacity?  A Guadalupe/Lamar alignment would do this better than any other corridor.  And if downtown streets have been at capacity since 1992 as this Statesman Article suggests, then why are planners shying away from the corridor that the most downtown workers are coming from as shown in the maps?

Additionally, looking at a Downtown Austin Alliance presentation from City of Austin Transportation officials, it's clear that the ring of constraint intersections broken through by the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor are more than the Mueller Alignment.  There is proximity to three of the gateway intersections as seen below (38th and Guadalupe, 38th and Lamar, 24th and Guadalupe) while the Mueller alignment has one. And given the congestion on the corridor and existing ridership, it doesn't make sense to leave it out.  Again, the Rapid Bus plan adds more seating capacity, but that doesn't mean travel time savings if the road is congested, the buses can't go anywhere.

 Support City's Planning Goals

Check

Encourage Investment and Economic Development

6.1 Maximize Return on Investment and Development Opportunities. - Outside of Mueller I'm not sure where this applies more than on the North Lamar/Guadalupe corridor.  There are so many opportunities to the north to change land uses and fix existing development patterns to support rail.  Just north of the Triangle is a perfect example. That area could become a huge example of neighborhood redevelopment. 

6.2 Maximize Economic Activity - No better place to raise sales tax receipts than to give people access to Amy's, Central Market, Chango's, Toy Joy, Mangia, Trudy's etc etc. Again, this is a destination corridor, unlike Mueller which has some opportunities, but not enough to be a first blockbuster investment.

6.3 Maximize Partnership Opportunities - Another metric for a small segment of right of way that will be used in Mueller.  There's also a greater chance of joint development opportunities in the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor because there are more development opportunities period and likely a greater market for redevelopment.  We are already seeing dense development taking place up through 32nd street.  The expansion of the line will extend the mixed use possibilities.

6.4 Access to Jobs -  There is no way that the Mueller corridor has more jobs than the North Lamar/Guadalupe Corridor.  Additionally, we showed above in the maps that the corridor that will serve the most downtown workers is to the north, not to the east.  For refreshment:
 

6.5 Potential for Job Creation - This goes back to the politics post.  If they want to redevelop the parking lots, and get a UT Medical school, then the east alignment is what will help them do it.  However if this is going to be a criteria, they should ding it for not connecting existing jobs and classrooms along the norther corridor.

Practical Considerations

7.1 Cost Effectiveness - The alignment through Mueller is approximately 4 miles.  The Guadalupe/Lamar alignment to Cresview station is approximately 4 miles straight.  Less curves less cost.  Also, because more people will ride the corridor to the north, the cost effectiveness is going to be much higher on that 4 miles than it will be sending it to Mueller.  We know this because of existing ridership on the corridor.  Boardings between the University at San Jacinto through Mueller currently stand at ~600 as mentioned above.  Boardings between the University at 27th and Crestview currently stand at ~3,300 .  The North Corridor has over THREE TIMES the amount of boardings already.  This means more riders and greater line productivity for the cost.  Again the ridership map:

7.2 Maximize Competitiveness for FTA and Other Funding - The north corridor already got a high rating the last time it was sent to the FTA (albeit it went to Howard Lane), why is the city afraid of submitting it again?  This is what I don't get. Why is everyone in Austin so afraid of the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor for light rail.  It WON in 2000 inside the city of Austin.  Not only did it win voters, in won the FTA.  What makes the city think an inferior corridor will do better?  And why isn't the city following Houston's lead and running the line right through the center of its major employment districts???

Here's Houston's alignment that has garnered so many riders:

And here are the alignment choices from Austin, again from skyscraper page

So after all of this what are the key points that should be made in regards to a Guadalupe/Lamar vs Mueller alignment?

1. Higher ridership and more useful lines have a greater ability to build political will for extensions.
2. The Guadalupe/Lamar Corridor has the highest ridership in the city of any bus by 2x.  The boardings on the upper segment is much higher than the current Mueller segment.
3. Greater densities of UT, Downtown, and State workers live along the north corridor than live out the Mueller alignment.  Greater densities overall follow the Guadalupe/Lamar alignments.
4. The North Guadalupe/Lamar Corridor is the most congested arterial in the region and needs more people moving capacity.
5. The North Guadalupe/Lamar Corridor addresses a greater number of constrained intersections.
6. The North Guadalupe/Lamar Corridor connects more destinations.

We know from the politics that there are reasons for pushing certain alignments.  But the raw data should prevail over politics when discussing the first Urban Rail corridor.

Ultimately the reason I wrote these posts is because I've seen a lot of cities go down the wrong path to start these multi-year transportation projects.  I've done this post on Austin specifically because it is a place that I love even though I've moved to San Francisco, sold my car, and already have my light rail half a block away from my house.  Ultimately I didn't need to spend a week breaking all this down, but people have been pushing this corridor for decades and I felt like there needed to be more facts and realistic numbers tied to the process.

I'm not sure why Austin elected officials are so scared of the corridor.  It did pass a vote in 2000 within the city of Austin and if it weren't for a certain GWB on the ballot the 1,800 or so votes might have gone the other way.  But as my college track coach Bubba used to say, "You gotta dance with who brung ya" and now after pushing on these lines for so many years, its time to make the right decisions based not on feelings, but on cold, hard evidence.

Austin's Rail History & Route Choice Problem Part 2: Politics

Now that we're through the history in the last post and know the ropes.  Let's chat about the current politics that are pushing the corridor in the direction it is headed instead of where we think the logical choice of corridor is located, down Guadalupe and Lamar streets.

Politics - Politics always plays a part of planning for a major infrastructure investment and this decision is no different.  There are several groups that have a specific interest in the routing of the transit line, and while not nefarious in their push to get the line through their land (it's an honest belief that it will help these parts of the city) , it seems to continue to push the project in the direction it is going.

And while its fair that each of these political pushes has merit enough for future extensions, it doesn't mean that these alignments should be the first ones in the ground. Consider the map of the current Urban Rail plan below in Orange.

Map Courtesy of the Austin Chronicle

The main line goes from the Mueller redevelopment project through the University of Texas on San Jacinto Street right next to Memorial Stadium and down south to Riverside where the line would run out to the Airport.  For some reason airports are always wanted for rail extensions even though they aren't major trip generators in the region compared with other areas.  Again, while my preferred corridor is Guadalupe/Lamar, we'll go through that issue later. 

University of Texas' Stake

The University of Texas has a strong presence in the Austin area.  Of course one of the largest institutions of higher education in the country would, but UT is specifically strong.  And it sees itself sometimes as its own little island.  Below is a map of the university campus.  Most students take classes in the sections labeled 1,2,4,5 in the top left quadrant of the campus area.

The yellow line above represents the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor which now is traversed by the #1 Route bus.  The orange line is the Urban Rail plan as it currently stands.

However the University sees itself as the whole campus, and their center is along San Jacinto street, which is the road that splits sections 5 and 6.  Since planning for rail began, the campus master planners at the University have always wanted rail on this street, even though it would be a round about route for students coming from the North or South trying to get to classes to sections 1 and 2.  Also the Forty Acres bus loop that takes students between housing on the west side of Campus (some of the densest neighborhoods in the city) is the second highest patronized bus line in the city after the #1 bus meaning that on any given day, about 8,000 students hop a bus to loop around campus because its convenient, and they don't want to walk up the huge hill from the stadium to Gregory Gym.  But the goal of the University of the line down San Jacinto was to be able to expand East as property allowed denser development for students and space on the west side disappeared.  This is in my mind why they continue to push for a San Jacinto alignment, it's the center of their future master plans.

Another wrinkle though occurred to me when visiting with Campus Planner John Rishling in 2004. He mentioned that at some point UT would also want to connect to the Pickle Campus as students could be housed there and expansion could take place to create a research village on 425 acres when space got to be a premium on the 40 Acres.  This is in UT's longer term plans and is unlikely to cause them to push for a corridor down Guadalupe anytime soon.  Additionally, unless the current Red Line is retrofitted a two seat ride would be required to get to Pickle, which is currently within walking distance to the Red Line itself, but not a stop.  Any future plans to make Pickle into a campus that needed to be directly connected to the 40 acres would have to consider transportation, but they are not there quite yet.

Images Courtesy of Dhiru Thadani

Map Courtesy of UT

 

Mueller Airport Redevelopment's Stake

Mueller Politics - Mueller is the first new urban neighborhood in the central city for a very long time. The planning for this site took years after the airport left the site for Bergstrom Air Force Base in Southeast Austin in 1999.  The Master Development Agreement was signed in 2004 and development started in 2007.

Throughout that time representatives at Mueller had pushed for rail to run into the development.  The development density was limited by a traffic impact analysis, and in order to increase densities a transit line needed to be constructed through the site to reduce the total trips.  According to the Capital Metro Future Connections Study for the 2006 streetcar alternatives analysis, that meant densities could increase by 12% if that rail line were constructed (PDF PG 15). 

The agreement with the City of Austin sets a traffic impact expectation on the basis of  proposed land use levels and the presence of existing transit services in the Mueller area. The introduction of measures that moderate vehicular travel to and from the site allows the developer to increase development density to the extent that traffic quantities are not increased above the expected level.

The analysis indicates that the Circulator, along with the MLK Rapid Bus, would attract increased transit use to the extent of reducing the RMMA traffic impact by 7,820 vehicle trips. On that basis, there could be additional development to the extent that 7,820 vehicle trips would result. If the development mix of additional development was the same as in the approved plan, the trip reduction would support a 12 percent increase in development without exceeding the vehicular travel target of 73,969 trips (assuming the current mix of land use is uniformly densified).

As the redevelopment project moves towards development, that allowance is cut short not by the trips, but the land available to build more density than originally planned.  So time is of the essence for Mueller but ultimately this type of incentive is backwards.  What they should have programmed is density allowances where increased value or bonus funding was funneled into a funding source that would have built the transit line to the development rather than having to wait for the line to get there before developing.   As it stands now that opportunity is disappearing, and the push for Mueller is a priority for increased value to the city and developers. 

State Politics & Space

Of course if you read the history you would see that there is a lot of animosity towards Capital Metro at the state level.  For a period of time they were trying to take away the quarter cent.  But for those who think the corridor would be a good thing, they want to redevelop the East side of the State Capital since the West is already developed. 

Of course the State provides parking in these garages and has a lot of excess capacity, which means that there is very little incentive to take transit other than existing traffic issues.  According to a 2010 parking study by the Texas Facilities Commission, any employee who works for the state at least four hours a day is eligible for a parking pass.  In 2009, approximately 25% of the spaces were vacant. According to the report...

This parking supply of 9,529 spaces serves approximately 10,101 full time employees (FTEs) in the Capitol Complex during a non-legislative year.

That's not a lot of transit usage but the report recommends that all that free parking is costing the State a LOT in lost revenues. Additionally this suggests that there is a missing demand for transit that could be met by a new line.  However the question will be how much of the population that works at the state is located along the Mueller Corridor as opposed to the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor and points north.

Image Courtesy of Austin American Statesman

With the state also hard up for money (as every other state in the country), the Texas Facilities Commission led by notorious Capital Metro detractor Terry Keel had been working on a public private partnership plan to bring 7 million square feet of space to the Capital.  This would include replacing a number of parking garages with new space which would be bolstered by the Urban Rail proposal. The parking report above also mentions the possible reuse of underutilized resources for redevelopment.

Additional whispers suggest that a UT Medical School campus could also be on the docket in this space, producing a long awaited Medical School that I've always wondered why it didn't exist in Austin.  State Senator Kirk Watson, who was on the Transit Working Group for a time is also pushing for the Medical Campus.   That's a lot of pressure to keep the line on San Jacinto and/or Trinity streets versus the already built out areas around Guadalupe and Lamar. 

The 2000 Burn

Finally there is the political ramifications of getting burned in the 2000 election which saw the voters in the City of Austin approve the Guadalupe/Lamar corridor, but the service area voted against (read the suburbs).  People in Austin continue to be scarred by that election and scared of the state's power to take away funding and make the city dance.  Not only was it the election that brought George W. Bush to the White House, it was also the one that almost wiped out half of Capital Metro's funding, and gave the anti-rail crowd more power in the city to say that the public wasn't interested.  Again, Of course the people of Austin were interested, just not those outside the city limits. Now that this isn't Capital Metro's line, something tells me the voters of the city will still have the City's back for a ridership proven line. 


The Push for Riverside

I really don't take issue with Riverside because its about an equal corridor with South Congress.  It will actually help alleviate concerns from Rob Lippencot (Guero's owner) and Max Nofziger who opposed development of Light Rail in 2000 on South Congress.  Additionally there is space for dedicated lanes in the median as well.  The Airport doesn't need to happen right away but that could be discussed at a future time.

Next Post - The Corridor That Should be the Focus