This is an unprecedented event. NO CYCLONE has ever entered the Gulf of Oman. And there are no custom 'storm surge' models available for that area. This forecast is based on my experience and subjective analysis of the seabed slope and storm surge interaction with the sea floor. Considering the region has never experienced a hurricane, let alone a strong one it is highly unlikely the loading facilities or platforms were constructed to withstand the forces - both wave action and wind force - that they will experience. Significant, damage will occur. How much long term damage, and the volumes associated with it - can not be determined at this time.So what does this mean for Transit? Another good question is what does this mean for Dubai and the reclaimed urban projects like the palm islands. Given that we don't know what this will do to gas prices, it might be really bad or mild. If its really bad we'll see a spike in gas prices and transit ridership. If its mild there will most likely be a bullet dodged.
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Hurricanes, Oil Spikes, and Transit
We might be headed for a major disruption in the coming days. The Oil Drum notes that it's a big deal in that a Hurricane has never entered the gulf. And the BBC notes that it's been about 60 years since this big of a storm event hit the region. From the Oil Drum...