Assume the Risk

There have been a lot of issues recently over cost estimates that are starting to rub me the wrong way. I had never mentioned it before but in my head I kept thinking to myself that the cost for LRT in Norfolk seemed awfully low. The most recent estimate was $232 million for 7.2 miles. Compared to most LRT lines that would have been a steal. Phoenix was upwards of $80 million per mile while Norfolk was hovering around $32 million. Now it's $340 million which is still ok at $47 million a mile, but everyone is going crazy.

But today I saw something interesting out of Houston. The city is going to pay up front an extra $100 million for their contract and the bid winner will assume liability for any cost overruns during the project (assuming it doesn't cause them to go out of business). My question then becomes, how come we don't make all contractors stick to their cost estimates?

While I understand that things change and work orders change, shouldn't the company which came in with the chosen bid be responsible for seeing through with their magic eight balls? Perhaps that is asking too much or asking in some instances for disaster. Cutting corners leads to bad things and I certainly wouldn't want a contractor to go cheap on materials because they were trying to make money. In any event, with all these cost overruns on projects that are making LRT look bad, I don't see why more isn't being done to make the bidders more responsible for their bids.

Taking the Lead

I like the business leader approach of Virginia Beach. The city council is elected to make decisions.

Top business leaders have come out against the city holding a referendum on a light-rail project, arguing it's a decision the City Council should make.

"It's a complex subject, but it's not above your pay grade," Jim Flinchum, board president of the Virginia Beach division of the Hampton Roads Chamber of Commerce, told the City Council last week. "This is your job."

Oh Noes! Street Parking Havoc!

So says an article in the Virginian Pilot. I had to chuckle when I saw the head line, "Light-rail work creates street-parking havoc in Norfolk". Havoc they say, pandemonium ensues and all is lost!

Machismo Burrito Bar owner Bill Caton worries it will drive him out of business. Like many businesses in densely developed Freemason, his relies on street parking for his customers.

But then we find out just how many spaces will be lost. A whopping 40. Someone at the city of Norfolk should have taken pedestrian counts before, during, and after the light rail construction. Then I checked the Pilot's website and what were the ads around the article? All for autos. Sure its not a direct correlation, but we know who pays for a lot of advertising budget for the news. Parking story? Big News!!!

Digging Up the Past

I always like reading these articles. It's cool that you can find history right under the streets. Usually it's just utilities and such, but sometimes you find more...

When the site for MacArthur Center was excavated in 1997, discoveries included a Hessian gold coin, 4,000-year-old spear points, Colonial-era pottery shards and a 19th-century medicine bottle.
...
Streetcar tracks are not uncommon, he said, and often "ugly to remove. There's usually a large concrete footer beneath the tracks to work around." Streetcars ran in Norfolk from about 1870 to 1948. He's also come across old retaining walls and bulkheads since parts of Norfolk were underwater."We just punch our way right through them," Swan said. When improving Boush Street several years ago, he said, the most unexpected obstacle was a live Western Union telegraph line.

In other places around the world such as Rome, it can get a bit crazy digging for subways.

Norfolk Officially Enters Transit Space Race

Sure they don't have funding but they are building their first line and have big plans for a regional transit network chock full of commuter rail, light rail, express buses and more. That's right Norfolk Virginia, the 34th largest metropolitan area by population just ahead of Charlotte, Providence, Milwaukee and Austin.

It looks like about 4 light rail extensions would be planned and commuter rail that would stretch to Richmond. The thought that they would shift monies to transit away from highway projects would be huge as well. It looks as if regions are starting to figure it out.

Robert Case, a transportation engineer who manages the study for the Hampton Roads Metropolitan Planning Organization, said there is growing political interest in shifting resources from highway projects to transit. He said such a shift would be a "sea change" and would require changes in land use and funding priorities.

The plan calls for creating higher-density and mixed-use development patterns in some areas to support an expanded transit network.

They Elect Representatives

More on the Virginia Beach saga. An editorial in the local paper is calling on city leaders to be..well..leaders. Apparently back in 1999 while sister city Norfolk was moving forward with its light rail plan under the guidance of its leaders, the folks in Virginia Beach passed the buck.

Ten years ago, the council abdicated its responsibility, punting the issue to voters with no recommendations and too little information. Eight of 11 members declined even to take a position.

Then-Vice Mayor Will Sessoms and Councilwoman Barbara Henley said they supported light rail but did not actively campaign for it. Not surprisingly, in the absence of information and leadership, voters rejected it. The 1999 referendum became an excuse to delay action on the Norfolk Southern line, a critical corridor for the city's future.

I'm amazed of late how much politicians who were elected to lead want to hide behind voters to make decisions for them or decide that they want things to be bipartisan if only for the reason that they can blame the other side when things go wrong. Take for example the stimulus package. At this very moment I'm sure its getting watered down in hopes of bipartisanship, something one side has made clear they don't believe.

But the Virginian Pilot makes a good point:

Voters don't decide which highways get built, whether the government should mail taxpayers stimulus checks or send troops to the Middle East. They elect representatives to make those decisions.

If Virginia Beach's leaders support moving forward with light rail, they must publicly make the case for it, one strong enough to sway the city's voters.

Why is it that we can build roads and don't have to ask anyone but when we make an investment in transit we have to ask usually not once, but a number of times to do it. Politicos always hide behind the decision when they should be embracing it. In cities where they have rejected rail referendums, they have been feeling it the last year. In cities where leaders and voters have made it happen, they have benefited from the investment, even if its short of what it should really be.

Using What You Purchase

Looks like Norfolk Southern is going to be asking a bit more for the ROW between Virginia Beach and Norfolk. Half of it will be used for the existing light rail line. It would be pretty worthwhile to buy now though because it will only get more expensive.

Though I would hope that they don't use the whole thing, at least further east towards the beach. The closer the ROW gets to the beach, the closer it gets to a large Naval Air Station, which is likely not too great for mixed use development unless at some point it is shut down and the property is redeveloped. Close by however is a major shopping district that could be recast after its useful life as a new center for Virginia Beach. Currently it has a lot of parking spaces ripe for redevelopment. You can see the difference between the two probably paths below.

You can also see in the aerial below that there is a wide median for ROW. However such a large street could use a boulevard reconfiguration to calm traffic and create better pedestrian scale development.


The extension to Virginia Beach also seems like a good line from a job connection standpoint as well. Three miles from the end of the current line under construction and west of the Naval Air Station above is this job and entertainment center below called Virginia Beach Town Center.

The point however is that while this is a good line, they need to look long and hard into where it goes, and might want to think about how much the ROW is worth beyond the Naval Air Station. It's probably worth buying and keeping for the future because if the NAS is decommissioned, a rapid streetcar could connect the station with the beach and start and end at light rail stations as well as circulation. But it's something to look into.

A Good Time to Buy ROW

Seems as if we have a golden opportunity to take advantage of the financial crisis. One way is the lowered value of property. Virginia Beach, perhaps looking to extend light rail from Norfolk, is setting aside $10 million as half of a $20 million payment to buy Norfolk Southern ROW for the line. Just a short time ago, it was worth about $50 million.

Negotiations have stalled before because the city and railroad company officials couldn't agree on price. The city also has considered condemning the land. Norfolk Southern appraisal last year valued the right of way at $50 million, said Robin Chapman, a company spokesman.

"That was done at the height of real estate values, and property values have declined since then," Chapman said. "We are nevertheless insistent on getting fair market value for it." He wouldn't say how much the company would take.

$1.8 Billion

That's how much the development along the Charlotte light rail line adds up to. No small, change, that's over 250% return on the initial investment of just under $500 million. That's just on the development and doesn't include these savings:

Morgan said new mixed-use transit-oriented development has sprung up along the line. There’s numerous anecdotes about lifestyle changes, he said, including downtown workers living in condos or apartments near rail stations who have sold their cars and avoided insurance, gas and other costs while getting transit subsidies from their employers.

Space Race Poll Result: Dallas Fort Worth Region

So it looks like we have a winner. You all believe that the next region to up the ante in the Space Race will be Dallas/Fort Worth. Now my North Texas friends will kill me for not putting Fort Worth in the poll with Dallas, but we all know which city is cooler. It looks though like the Norfolk region was a close second. It will be interesting to see what happens there as well.

So the new poll will be up soon.

What the Question Should Be

The view that transit is a luxury we can't afford in this time of economic peril is getting quite ridiculous. From the papers all over California that don't see the high speed rail investments as important for the states future to Virginia Beach politicians asking where they were going to get money for the extension of the under construction light rail line to Virginia Beach.

Linda Johnson questioned Nixon's light rail talk during her answer. "I think we need to get real here," she said. "The economy today is in a crisis, so the bottom line is, where's the money coming from?"

Why not from money that would usually go to freeways to nowhere? Seems to me if the economy is shot, you're not going to need those freeways for a while anyway. With more people taking transit and gas getting more expensive, its time to shuck the excuses.

It's Official

Norfolk State representatives are idiots. Let's move the station away from Campus and on the other side of a major intersection. What world do I live in???

Standard Response: X Project is a Black Hole

I've noticed a lot of taxpayer associations popping up talking about black holes. Perhaps they are scared of a certain super collider, but its usually a rail line that will severely hamper their ability to drive. Right? I mean they are freedom destroyers. This one is in response to the Norfolk Light Rail to Virginia Beach:

"This project is nothing but a black hole on the backs of the taxpayers," said Robert Dean of the Virginia Beach Taxpayer Alliance.

Project Name - Verb - Black Hole

Miracle Light Rail Bill Passes

Again it's mainly symbolic but it opens up the discussion to connect Virginia Beach to Norfolk. And it gives me a good feeling about Tim Kaine on transit if he were to say be nominated for Veep. It's better than the Tomnibus bill which again shot down Metro funding.

Sunday News Links

The Orange Line BRT estimated initial ridership on a hunch. Models drive me crazy, but this seems a bit nuts as well. From the LA Times:

MTA officials denied that they lowballed Orange Line ridership predictions but conceded that their forecasts might be more art than science. "We didn't put it into a computer model," said Rod Goldman, the MTA's deputy executive officer for service development. "A lot of it was our educated guesswork based on our experience."

Charlotte's mixed use market is doing better than single family homes. Seems to me like this might be from lack of supply over the years. Complaints of expense just prove this point. From the Charlotte Observer:

“There's an immediate crisis feeling about the price of gas, but there's also a different living preference now,” said Laura Harmon, economic development program manager for the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Planning Commission. “Those of us who might be baby boomers didn't have those options. But now the millennials and so forth are wanting to live differently.”

As noted in the guest post by J.M. it will be interesting to see how Norfolk's light rail line comes out. But while they were pushing forward, their sister city rejected the idea. Now the local paper thinks its time to get back on the train.

Finally comes a blog post from Bill Fulton's blog. Seems that Starbucks has bucked the trend of picking the 100% corner and instead is concentrating more on auto orientation in Redding. Really? Seems a bit strange to me at this time that they would want someone to get in their car making them think about gas to go buy an expensive cup of coffee. But the poster makes a good point that its partly the citizens that are to blame.

The Starbucks with a drive-through window at the edge of downtown? That one stays. So does the Starbucks at the other end of downtown inside of Safeway. But the coffee house at the most visible corner in downtown? The store that was supposed to anchor a cornerstone redevelopment project? It’s closing.
...

Ultimate responsibility, though, lies with the community. Redding is a town where people rush to the newest franchise restaurant. Earlier this year, they lined up overnight for the opening of a Chipotle in a rebuilt strip center. Seriously. It’s a town where Wal-Mart, Costco, Target and Home Depot have big boxes within walking distance of each other – although you’d take your life in your hands trying to make the trip on foot.

In other words, most people who live in Redding don’t care about having a vibrant downtown full of local flavor. And no one – including an urban planning journalist who thinks he knows better – can make them care.

Slow Boat to China

Another day, another China HSR expansion post somewhere in the blogosphere. When are we going to learn? Why are we sitting around doing nothing? What are we waiting for? I got an email from a reader a few weeks ago about our sloooow timeline for projects in this country. So here are some of his thoughts: J.M. Carter and the Slow Boat to China (Slightly edited for continuity and links to projects included)

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I would like to comment on the sad state of affairs that exists in this country re: the time it takes to get things done. There was a time when we could rebuild a battered and bloodied aircraft carrier in a matter of days and send it back into battle. Now, with the light rail "industry" generally we seem to be falling farther and farther behind other nations when it comes to constructing anything to do with rail transit.

Couple of examples right now:

Phoenix, Valley Metro light rail. The line running north on 19th Av. is to be extended an additional 3 1/2 miles with 3 new stations. This is less than 20,000 feet of wire and rail and maybe a substation. How long to do it? From mid '08 to sometime in '12 or as much as 4 1/2 years!

Salt Lake City, UTA Trax light rail. Just announced the start of construction on the 5 mile line to West Valley City with 4 stations. This is less than 30,000 feet in length. How long? This is maybe a joke from John Inglish, the top guy, but would you believe he actually says by '15? That's 7 1/2 years, depending on how far into '15 they go with it.

I would seriously consider applying for a job as timekeeper on both of these projects. Almost any other country could do either in less than 2 years, using the standards now applicable in the trade. The problem in public transit today is not just the knuckleheads in the FTA but rather the lack of funding and slow construction timelines in cities that already have plans for expansion. China is building heavy rail subways all over the place while India is doing the same as a close second to them. Any doubt as to where the wave of the future is now?

This really is something both the "industry" and the nation should feel frightened about. In an area where the feds -with their total overview of things-( as well as having the moneybags as leverage) really should be demanding and setting some standards, nothing is being done about absurd costs and time spans. Again and again you hear the refrain "local conditions" and "prevailing supply and demand." Have you ever heard of any US project taking a look offshore to see how others do some of these things that we are so slow with? Hell no. We just laugh at "the French" and ignore any and all innovations others have made and used successfully.

Take the proposed extension of Charlotte's new light rail line. Won't be ready until 2014 or even later (the date keeps changing) but it is at least 5-6 years away. 300 miles to the northeast in Norfolk, one of the very few bright spots in the current light rail scene, they are building a new line that- while a bit shorter than Charlotte's- is very similar to it in many ways and will even use the same S70 LRVs. Scheduled to be completed in 2010 at a cost only about a quarter of the Charlotte's Line.

If the FTA had any brains at all they would be waving this one around and demanding that it become a kind of standard for other systems. Norfolk shows it can be done quickly and right and some of these other buffoons should pay attention and maybe pay a visit.

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PT: Seems to me that we should be allowed to put light rail and streetcar lines back into streets that had them before. Why we need all these crazy huge environmental impact statements to put streetcars back in the streets many of them created is beyond me.

Thanks again J.M.

Light Rail Cheerleader Bill Passes

It has no binding authority or funding but it's a push. An extension to Virginia Beach got a slight nudge when it passed the legislature. It's kind of sad actually. These types of projects are needed sooner rather than later and this just proves that things in this country are just going too slow. There's no real urgency among lawmakers and its up to citizens to push harder. Obviously there are obstacles and neanderthals in the way but big ideas and plans should prevail.

And Now for Something Completely Different...

Unbeknownst to Virginia Beach city leaders, two republican state legislators from Virginia have introduced a bill that would extend the under construction light rail from Norfolk to the beach. It's another case of taking folks into the 21st Century, kicking and screaming.

“It’s time for this to happen, whether they favor it or not,” Tata said Tuesday....“You’d be foolish to drive in,” he said. “I-264 right now is sort of like a race track , it’s so dangerous. Why fight that kind of battle? You could train in and save on parking fees.”

Fuelish indeed.

Do You Have SOV Disorder?

H/T Rebuilding Place in the Urban Space

Where Are the Whiners on This One?

Man that Houston can sure build roads! Good thing they're starting to get a little balance. An email on the LightRail_Now yahoo group came in with an article about the Hampton Roads cost increase for a specific piece of the route. Now they have contingency money set aside so its not busting the budget but the ridiculousness of transit opponents comes out when overruns occur. It's a "boondoggle"! they say.

Well what about boondoggles like this: the Katy Freeway in Houston. Charles Kuffner covered this back in February but the email reminded me about this fantastic project that's $1.7 Billion over the original $1 Billion or $1.2 Billion estimate. How many more billions in GHG cleanup will this one cost?

As for Hampton Roads and other FTA projects, what do you expect when you start a project and over10 years it gets changed a little and built. This type of time overrun has got to stop. We can't wait that long anymore. Don't get me wrong, we need to build it right...but ten years?! Give me a break.