"We Don't Dwell"

Yay FTA Models. You totally rule at figuring out ridership in new light rail cities. You did a bang up job in Minneapolis (24K in 2020, current 26k), really got those Houston numbers right for 2020 (33k in 2020, current 38k), and Charlotte was right on target(9k opening, current 14k). Note: the APTA daily numbers are a bit wonky. I don't know if I completely trust them to the rider but they make the point.

Now we can add Phoenix to the list of FTA model lowballing:

The rail was projected to attract 26,000 riders per day, but the number is closer to 33,000, boosted in large part by weekend riders.

What kills me about all this lowballing, is what the cost effectiveness number was, and what it SHOULD have been. Ultimately that is what decides projects. And it's a little messed up that the FTA keeps getting it wrong, especially when they can kill a project because of a CE below Medium. Oh, and here's the money quote from the opponents:

Starlee Rhoades, the spokeswoman for the Goldwater Institute, a vocal critic of the rail’s expense. “I’ve taken it,” Ms. Rhoades said, slightly sheepishly. “It’s useful.” She and her colleagues still think the rail is oversubsidized, but in terms of predictions of failure, she said, “We don’t dwell.”
...
“We are also proponents of paying your own way, and we think the light rail remains too subsidized.”

That's right, you're in the New York Times saying the light rail is useful and full of people after you said no one would ride it. In fact, your institute is just like every other that goes around and spreads doom and gloom everywhere. And what is the fascination with subsidies? I guess I'll never get that end of the argument.

Monday Night Notes

I'm wondering if Austin ever did a real alternatives analysis for the center city line. I imagine its a no, and if so, they would do well to see where the highest ridership is. I'm guessing Guadalupe.
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Lots of people are taking light rail in Phoenix. However its not the usual work trip.

Metro found that only 27 percent of the patrons ride the light rail to and from work. In many large cities, commuters make up the dominant share of riders. The survey found that sports fans, shoppers and people going to and from the airport or cultural events form the largest group.

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Folks in Dallas are worried that the light rail line will make Richardson grow so fast that traffic will be horrendous.

Lots of development is going forward in Richardson, with much of it related to DART's rail service. But there's a downside to this good fortune: increased pressure on roadways. North Central Expressway is getting the big pounding.

I'm sure its all the transits fault.
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Parking Rates & Housing Needs

In Phoenix, Light Rail has pushed more businesses to core areas and pushed parking rates up.

While they remain among the lowest in the nation, monthly parking rates in Phoenix grew faster this year than in any other major metro area in the country. A new annual report on parking rates from Colliers International says the median unreserved monthly parking rate in Phoenix is $65. That’s up 24 percent from last year’s survey, while the national average declined 1 percent. Two years ago, the average in Phoenix was just $35 a month.

The strange thing is the light rail is causing more people to drive downtown. Perhaps downtown parking fees should be harvested as value capture, since there seems to be some sort of causation according to the article.

“With the light rail’s capability of moving more people in and out of downtown, we are beginning to see entertainment venues and businesses shift from the Camelback Corridor and other metro areas to downtown Phoenix to take advantage of light rail traffic,” Miscio said. “This shift is also driving more auto traffic into downtown, increasing parking garage usage and rates during both the daytime and evening.”

Though businesses moved, development has been slow in Phoenix, for obvious reasons. But while the line connects destinations, according to local developers it's lacking in housing density, which is another likely reason that more people are driving and parking rates are higher. It's times like these that looking at value capture possibilities to pay for more transit and related infrastructure is probably a good idea. Especially since there is likely to be a residential building uptick if there is a lack of options along the line.

Saturday Sacramento Links

It was nice to see everyone at the NJudah shindig last night. I'm in Sacramento for a family reunion this weekend so posting might be light.

Looks like Phoenix is pausing its first extension due to funding issues.
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I think people like Barbara Boxer still don't get the climate, transport, land use connection. I am glad that folks are talking gas tax, but there has to be a better way.
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LA is building an Orange Line extension that connects the Chatsworth Metrolink station to the Warner Center, which is kind of like LA's Tyson's Corner. I think this is a great connection that obviously should be updated as soon as possible. With the Warner Center thinking about densifying, the connection to commuter rail is key.
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I like this quote from Rep. John Mica:

"if you're on the Transportation Committee long enough, even if you're a fiscal conservative, which I consider myself to be, you quickly see the benefits of transportation investment. Simply, I became a mass transit fan because it's so much more cost effective than building a highway. Also, it's good for energy, it's good for the environment – and that's why I like it."

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Some interesting information on traction motors in Europe. Kind of continues on our electrification theme of late.

Ridership Ahead in Phoenix

It's really not known when the initial novelty of the line wears off but I would say around 6 months you really know what you're gonna get. With that said, Phoenix is showing signs of promise at sticking to over 35% of projections.

Ridership for the Valley's new light-rail system appears to be stabilizing at a level well above expectations, Metro's chief executive officer said Wednesday. Although passenger counts for March were incomplete, Rick Simonetta cautioned, data collected through three and a half weeks show the average number of boardings during weekdays was more than 34,300.

Bringing Customers to the Bar

I rode BART to Lafayette tonight to eat dinner with my family and noticed how easy it was to get off at the station and just walk across the street to the restaurant. Lafayette downtown is actually easy to access from BART.

If only it was always so easy. Well if you have transit close to places you go it makes things easy. This is the case in Arizona as well, where patrons are hopping off light rail to get a drink.

Kelly said light rail's impact on the tavern's crowds has been incredible. Out of nowhere, a crowd will pour into the bar after hopping off the train for a night on Mill. It makes for a nice jolt.

"It's still the fun and exciting thing for us now," Kelly said of light rail. "It's been great for us. I hope it continues." It never hurts to have a university nearby, either.

Sean Donovan, communications director for the Tempe Chamber of Commerce, said Mill's nightlife has been supported during the current economic downturn by light rail, cross promotion among bars, and Arizona State University.

Phoenix Ridership to a Good Start

It's a little early to claim victory here because of all the special events that have been going on since this line opened as well as the "new" factor, but it looks promising. Current weekday ridership numbers are at 30,000 while the projections for opening day were at 26,000. Long term 2030 numbers are expected to be around 50,000. And hey, look! A low-medium cost-effectiveness rating! Again, today it takes a medium because of a 2005 Bush administration edict. This could turn into yet another ridership projection FAIL if the ridership stays at it's current level during a severe downturn.

Ridership projection FAIL = Cost Effectiveness Index FAIL.

Early Ridership Report from Phoenix

It's really too early to tell what the daily ridership will be, since the line is only a few weeks old, but here are some initial numbers, possibly heightened by the initial novelty, but lowered by the absence of college students at Arizona State.

The agency puts out its first official monthly totals in the middle of next month. But based on estimates, Metro believes its daily ridership from Monday of this week to today ranges from 20,000 to 30,000.

Where's the Housing Action?

On the blue line in Charlotte.

Development in the Charlotte region has slowed for sure, but real estate analysts say persistent developers are still making things happen.

Look no farther than the Lynx Blue Line, where the Charlotte Apartment Report says 10 communities totaling nearly 3,000 apartments are in various stages of development along the tracks paralleling South Boulevard.

This along with similar reports in Phoenix and Denver has been telling us what everyone needs to hear. If you want a strong region, there needs to be a range of opportunities for people to live. I feel like part of the reason for this continued construction on housing near transit is not only that its strong in a storm, but rather there is a lot of catching up to do in order to provide the actual product that people want. The market is so saturated with the same dreck, the pendulum swing is going to be long and hard. I hope it goes far to the other side, but I'm not holding my breath.

Mental Block

I took a some heat a few days ago for saying that Atlanta is falling behind. Even though they have more transit and have a big plan, other cities seem to actually be "doing" rather than just talking. But its also an issue of regional mentality. I've seen a lot of these articles over the last few years and the feeling that nothing is getting done while other cities are building makes the fact that they are already ahead not so much of a consolation. And this doesn't help either:

Olens said plum employers with skilled jobs are slipping away. “In the last two years, I’ve had two major corporations tell me they would not move their headquarters to the Cobb Galleria area because all we had are buses,” Olens said this week.

The fact that there is little movement is well known to leaders that want to move forward in Atlanta, and there are many. But it seems as if no one with the political will wants to push.

“I continue to be frustrated that we can’t seem to move in that direction,” said Sam Olens, chairman of the Atlanta Regional Commission and the Cobb County commission. “We’re losing our competitive advantage.”

Two years ago, the Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce invited reporters to hear officials from Phoenix and other cities talk about their new transportation initiatives. The message was clear: Atlanta and Georgia could be left in the dust.

On Wednesday, Sam Williams, president of the chamber, said in a statement that “cities that have made transportation a priority, like Phoenix, Dallas and Charlotte, continue to leapfrog Atlanta with respect to regional mobility. … While these areas make progress, we seem choked in congestion with little leadership to get us out.”

90,000 Riders on First Day

Big day for the Phoenix opening.

Opening a Line Always Popular

If you're going to Phoenix, stay away from the end light rail stations. People love to swarm the rails on the first few days. Apparently the Mesa station is packed. Remember this scene last year from Charlotte, or perhaps Seattle?

Post Christmas Day Linkage

I limited my internet access over the past few days in Bakersfield (would have been nice to take HSR down there) and am now catching up completely with my reader. Posting will be light over the next week as I just kind of zone out for a bit. One thing I miss about college is that month long sleep break we got around Christmas time. I'm gonna take some time with sparse posting. In any event, here is some linky goodness.
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The Tram that serves OHSU in Portland did an amazing job keeping people working there linked to the city during the snow storm.

The tram, which extends from a streetcar stop in South Waterfront up to OHSU, helped the hospital keep running through the worst of the snow. With buses unable to make the trip up to Marquam Hill, OHSU kept the tram running until midnight so that patients and staff could get up to the hospital and back down the hill again.

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Light Rail is now open in Phoenix!
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California HSR could get $20B from the stimulus. That would be a great contribution to the future of California, just like the aqueduct was many years previous. Personally, I'd like to see us hire Dutch engineers for New Orleans and California's Levee problems. I know its off topic, but its something that needs serious attention too and will benefit for many years to come.
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More on the big push from Congressman Oberstar.

Oberstar said, "We're going to rewrite the whole book on this thing." The stimulus package is the prologue to a broader effort to show that mass transit is not just a good idea; it's a vehicle America can ride into the future.

This makes me think there needs to be a name for our movement. Something simple. The Big Push? Any suggestions?
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This seems a bit much to me. $668 million for a crossover track between Walnut Creek and Concord on BART?? Isn't there a better use for that money? Anyone know anything about this?
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And finally, Dan shows us how to man up in the snow.

Naming Places Not Known

It's interesting what happens when you have a specific stop on a light rail line and name it. Partly, it seems to give a sense of place to that district and perhaps a permanent moniker. In Phoenix, some are excited that a district will now be recognized.

"Each stop has a different personality and we need to acknowledge and celebrate it," said Simplot. He said is pleased to see light rail give the Melrose District the recognition it deserves.

"When people go through here, they will know they are in Melrose," he said.

Oh the Horror!!!

Atrios writes:

I don't know Phoenix at all so don't have any opinion whether the light rail system there makes any sense (I mean, over and above my general feeling that they should be built everywhere), but I loved this from a hater:

I can't wait for all the complaints we'll hear once the temperature is 110 degrees . . . and the riders find no shade (has anyone looked at those useless wings provided for shade?) while waiting and, worst of all, will have to walk blocks to get where they want to go.

You might have to walk blocks!

Oh the horror!!!

H/T SF Bike Blog

Slow Boat to China

Another day, another China HSR expansion post somewhere in the blogosphere. When are we going to learn? Why are we sitting around doing nothing? What are we waiting for? I got an email from a reader a few weeks ago about our sloooow timeline for projects in this country. So here are some of his thoughts: J.M. Carter and the Slow Boat to China (Slightly edited for continuity and links to projects included)

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I would like to comment on the sad state of affairs that exists in this country re: the time it takes to get things done. There was a time when we could rebuild a battered and bloodied aircraft carrier in a matter of days and send it back into battle. Now, with the light rail "industry" generally we seem to be falling farther and farther behind other nations when it comes to constructing anything to do with rail transit.

Couple of examples right now:

Phoenix, Valley Metro light rail. The line running north on 19th Av. is to be extended an additional 3 1/2 miles with 3 new stations. This is less than 20,000 feet of wire and rail and maybe a substation. How long to do it? From mid '08 to sometime in '12 or as much as 4 1/2 years!

Salt Lake City, UTA Trax light rail. Just announced the start of construction on the 5 mile line to West Valley City with 4 stations. This is less than 30,000 feet in length. How long? This is maybe a joke from John Inglish, the top guy, but would you believe he actually says by '15? That's 7 1/2 years, depending on how far into '15 they go with it.

I would seriously consider applying for a job as timekeeper on both of these projects. Almost any other country could do either in less than 2 years, using the standards now applicable in the trade. The problem in public transit today is not just the knuckleheads in the FTA but rather the lack of funding and slow construction timelines in cities that already have plans for expansion. China is building heavy rail subways all over the place while India is doing the same as a close second to them. Any doubt as to where the wave of the future is now?

This really is something both the "industry" and the nation should feel frightened about. In an area where the feds -with their total overview of things-( as well as having the moneybags as leverage) really should be demanding and setting some standards, nothing is being done about absurd costs and time spans. Again and again you hear the refrain "local conditions" and "prevailing supply and demand." Have you ever heard of any US project taking a look offshore to see how others do some of these things that we are so slow with? Hell no. We just laugh at "the French" and ignore any and all innovations others have made and used successfully.

Take the proposed extension of Charlotte's new light rail line. Won't be ready until 2014 or even later (the date keeps changing) but it is at least 5-6 years away. 300 miles to the northeast in Norfolk, one of the very few bright spots in the current light rail scene, they are building a new line that- while a bit shorter than Charlotte's- is very similar to it in many ways and will even use the same S70 LRVs. Scheduled to be completed in 2010 at a cost only about a quarter of the Charlotte's Line.

If the FTA had any brains at all they would be waving this one around and demanding that it become a kind of standard for other systems. Norfolk shows it can be done quickly and right and some of these other buffoons should pay attention and maybe pay a visit.

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PT: Seems to me that we should be allowed to put light rail and streetcar lines back into streets that had them before. Why we need all these crazy huge environmental impact statements to put streetcars back in the streets many of them created is beyond me.

Thanks again J.M.

Two Types of Impact: Planning and Development on the Rails

While China seeks to sprawl and pursue what they think is the American Dream, the other world population giant India is looking to Japan for its thoughts on urbanization. This is a good sign for those who worry that energy will only get worse if China and India continue down the path of consumption.

Indo-Japan working group on urban development identified many areas including GIS based utility mapping, disaster management, emerging technologies in water and sanitation and clean development mechanism for further cooperation in the day long session today.

The group also agreed to explore on capacity building in urban transport, rail-based transit system, comprehensive mobility planning and management using intelligent transport systems.

Back in the United States, Phoenix is seeing a market shift around its soon to be open light rail line. In fact $6 Billion dollars has been spent on development along the line and now that gas prices are higher, land has become even more expensive and coveted.

Light rail is not the sole reason why projects in the transit system's vicinity have developed, real-estate analysts note. But the future system has definitely been a catalyst prompting developers to pay higher prices for property adjacent to the line for condominiums, office buildings and retail centers. Economic factors, including soaring fuel prices, have caused developers like Eugene Marchese to focus attention on transit-oriented projects.

I expect to see more of these stories about the direct benefits of investing in transit as well as these on the more high profile blogs. Maybe the pols would do well by starting to pay attention.

Sunday Evening Roundup

Whew, it was nice to get away from the computer for a bit. I'll have a post about it soon. But for now, I went through the good ole Google Reader and found some particularly interesting stories from the last few days:

Salt Lake City has signed an agreement to build the "North Temple" or Airport rail line. They are starting to make good on their promise of 70 miles in 7 years.

Becker said the rail line is being viewed as a "demonstration project" for responsible energy use and sustainable development. The mayor also announced plans to recreate North Temple as a "grand boulevard," a makeover that will feature four lanes with the TRAX line running down the center, a "refinished" viaduct, the addition of two bicycle lanes in each direction and new landscaping features.

Bruce Katz from Brookings hits the nail on the head when it comes to the election and policy from Washington as it pertains to infrastructure investment. This from the Christian Science Monitor:

Ultimately, its goal is to revolutionize the way the US views its metropolises. "If you're going to get serious about the economy, then you've got to get specific about how you're going to leverage metropolitan economies," says Bruce Katz, director of the metropolitan policy program at Brookings.

Even though America's 100 largest cities generate two-thirds of US jobs and three-quarters of domestic economic output, much of the policy coming from Washington – and from the presidential candidates – is still rooted in a Jeffersonian ideal of hamlets and small towns, Mr. Katz says.

Prague Post has an article about Washington DC's Skoda streetcars. It has a good amount of information so check it out.

Manufactured through a now-defunct joint venture between Škoda and Inekon, the trams are still in the Czech Republic, stored at the Ostrava Transport Company. Fortunately the trams are under warranty and, like cars, are taken out regularly (without passengers) to keep them in good condition and tested. They are expected to be moved to Washington later this year.

Oklahoma's large cities are in the bottom of the barrel when it comes to transit. No wonder when your state senator says that spending money for the DC metro is like stealing money from your children. I think GW has a monopoly on that action. More from CNN Money.

And finally we have this comedic gem from the Arizona Republic's letters to the editor. It made me wonder where people get all their misinformation.

Congratulations to all the contractors and land speculators that profited from this billion-dollar boondoggle, (How many non-polluting buses could have been bought for the same money?) and to our politicians who shoved it all down our throats.

Great job.

"Light rail" is as good as an idea now as when are city forefathers shut down our trolley system back in 1948. Ironic, isn't it? Ah, the wonders of "modern technology."

Remember, trains with overhead wires aren't modern and the only people that like them are contractors and speculators, unlike those super modern highways which are built purely to serve the people . Didn't you get the memo?

Media Framing on LRT Expansion

In the last two days the media narrative in two cities on light rail expansion hit me as odd. Immediately the framing from the title hit against the rail line, without going into the basics of the story or being somewhat neutral.

In Phoenix it was the light rail "displacing" homeowners, as if there was a train booting out the owners with its foot, ...er pantograph. We later find out at the bottom of the article that the homeowner didn't really have to leave and that about 15 feet was being taken from the property, more than likely not where the line was going to be running. That and he asked that the transit authority buy the whole property, which they did. It seems to me that leaving out those points until the end of the article is a bit misleading.

A buyer told Goodrich that he would buy the house if it were rezoned as commercial property. Goodrich approached the city to change the status and found out it was interested in buying 15 feet of the front yard that faced 19th Avenue. Goodrich petitioned the city, asking they buy the entire property. They agreed and bought the house.

Then there's a story in the Rocky Mountain News in Denver where the Light Rail Line again by itself is "forcing" the business to close. Reading down further in the article, the local transit agency is just saying that the property owner won't be able to use the RTD ROW that it has owned and kindly allowed the business owner to use as a crossing.

But an RTD spokeswoman Sunday said Crespin's business is caught up in an unfortunate crisis of access. RTD has allowed access to the property over its right-of-way for years. But now the agency needs the route for light rail.

"RTD for many years has kept that offer going, and we've allowed them to cross the tracks, which are our property, to have access to the (business)," said RTD spokeswoman Pauletta Tonilas. "Last July we sent them a notification letter letting them know they were going to have to cease doing that."

This is the kind of narrative we've had to go through for a long time, the idea that the new transit lines are the problem. No one (well no one in the news) discusses the insane displacement that occurred during the construction of the interstate highway system. Putting it into perspective, during the time of Moses, half a million people were displaced by the New York freeway system construction.

I wish CNU had put together a youtube video of that speech Robert Caro gave at the Congress in Austin about his book about Robert Moses, The Power Broker. It was very moving and showed the pain and suffering that went into building the interstate highway system.

But back to the above. If we're going to change the idea that transit is second class, there needs to be a framing and narrative change. I'm not quite sure how to go about it, but I thought I would at least start by pointing it out.

Transit Space Race 202: Who's On Top?

Every once in a while we have to review where the TSR is going. Today let's take a short look at the leader board. Previous TSR update for the whole race can be found here. Keep in mind legacy cities are expanding transit as well, but the cities in the TSR are those which have pushed off transit until recently and are trying to bring it back.

The leaders are far ahead of the other cities, many of which are either just building as funds come available or still in the initial stage of denial. That doesn't mean there's not time to catch up, but these leading cities are still the reason I started covering the space race. Because they were accelerating expansion far beyond the line at a time doctrine and capturing the hope that things can change and people are ready for it.

Denver - Fastracks is still the granddaddy of expansion. The West Corridor has begun construction and the 119 new miles of rail are expected to be completed by 2016. That seems so soon, so awesomely soon in fact that folks are starting to look at the next round of possibilities.

Houston - While not as publicized as much as the Fastracks expansion, the Metro Solutions expansion was actually voted on before Fastracks. However it wasn't seen as such a big deal until it was looked at in the context of all these other expansions. It's more of a central city circulation system but works with existing HOV bus lanes to allow people in the dense core of Houston to get around. I wonder what the weighted Density is inside the loop. AC?

Salt Lake City - Fast on the heels of Denver and Houston, Salt Lake City passed a sales tax measure to expand on the initial success of their first line, which opened in 1999. The expansion is called Front Lines and will build 70 miles worth of rail in 7 years.

Minneapolis - While there isn't a plan in place for expansion like the other cities, there are lines that will get the money when it comes. The DFL party in Minnesota passed a sales tax expansion for capital transit expansion and overrode a veto by vice presidential hopeful Gov. Pawlenty. This doesn't include a possible center city streetcar network under discussion.

These four cities are in the fast lane. Other cities are building network expansions but at a slower pace. Charlotte passed a half cent sales tax in 1998 but is expanding their 5 line system slowly. There are considerations for further tax increases for expansion in other cities as well including Seattle, Phoenix, Los Angeles, Dallas and Sacramento among others. We will be watching as gas prices goes up and the call for expansion increases. It wouldn't hurt either to have a more friendly administration in the White House.

Oh, and let's not forget the godfather, Portland. 4 lines and a streetcar exist. Two lines are under construction while three other lines are in waiting with a center city streetcar network looking more likely. They are still the leaders and set the standard but the next generation is gaining.