50 Years for a System?

The Twin Cities finally signed its full funding grant agreement(FFGA) with the FTA for the Central Corridor. This just 7 years after the completion of its first light rail line, the Hiawatha. In the meantime the Northstar Commuter Line was completed. Now they are planning for the Southwest Corridor and gearing up for that long haul fight as well. With any luck, that line will be signing its FFGA in less than a decade. But why does it take so long to build these transit lines and why are regions doing them one by one? Well, the answer as usual is money.

However of all places, Los Angeles has provided a discussion spark. The 30/10 program now nationally renamed America Fast Forward has pushed the Transit Space Race forward at least an inch, giving hope to regions tired of doing things one line at a time. Salt Lake City has proved expansion can be done on time and on budget and now other regions are starting to think, why not us? The Twin Cities is no different, with local leaders seeing the possibilities.

I'm hopeful that this will push the discussion along as to why it took ~40 years to build a network of national freeways but it seems like building out real transit networks in cities might take over 100 at the current pace. It's not like there aren't a lot of projects out there (complete excel sheet on the page). In fact, there are over 600 fixed guideway transit projects and that doesn't even count all of the frequent bus and trolley bus service that is being planned. That's not to say that all those lines are good lines, but they are out there.

I can only hope that we move past the one line a decade mentality and build lines that matter.

Indianapolis Follows The Wrong Footsteps

In November an Indianapolis group called Indy Connect released their long range vision for transit in the region. It's chock full of all the stuff transit geeks love including lines on maps. I'm not going to go into the details of the plan as Yonah at Transport Politic has already got that angle. Additionally, the locals at Urban Indy have done a good job getting the initial reactions from folks on the ground.

But I definitely approve of bringing down the bus headways to real levels that would start to make ridership equal that of other regions of similar size. Places like Austin, Columbus, and Charlotte are similar size with daily ridership much higher.

Austin - 108,300
Columbus - 58,400
Charlotte - 103,500
Indianapolis - 29,700

But that's not really the issue I wanted to address. Also in the plan are several commuter rail lines, light rail, and BRT that isn't really RT due to its lack of dedicated lanes in the plan. The light rail has been pushed back I'm assuming based on cost and the first rail corridor they want to build is the Northeast Line. While this looks like the deal of the century, they should really take advantage of the fact that they are late to the Transit Space Race by looking at what other regions have done and the consequences of their actions.

Politically it looks like a short term winner with a long term loser. Build the commuter rail line on an existing freight rail ROW on the cheap to get voters in suburban jurisdictions to buy into the plan. They'll vote for it because its cheap and the voters of the main jurisdiction will think they are getting a rail line because that's what you're selling with pictures of commuter lines in Chicago and Philadelphia and Austin. But the people that really want it will just get bus lines for their trouble.

Curious that last city I listed. Because they went first, Austin tested the waters with this type of plan. Back in 2000 there was a light rail election that lost by less than 2,000 votes because George Bush was on the ballot among other reasons. That line would have hit all the employment centers and gotten about 37,000 riders, more than all of Indianapolis' transit does now. But it lost, so in 2004 Austin got the politically palatable solution that is now a commuter rail line taking about 800 riders a day from Leander to the North to the outskirts of downtown Austin. Take a look at these cities aerial photos and let me know if you see something familiar.

Indianapolis - Left Yellow is the University, Middle Yellow is Downtown, State Capital and the red line is the commuter rail.


Austin - Top Yellow is University of Texas, Bottom Yellow is State Capital and Downtown


See a resemblance? Both lines skirt places people want to go. Austin's line gets around 800 riders a day. For the last 6 years Austin has been discussing urban rail to go places where the commuter rail line did not go. However the plan keeps getting pushed back for a number of different reasons that are mostly political. But if they would have done the right line first, neighborhoods all over the city would be begging for extensions to a current system. The politics would be a no brainer but as it currently stands, people are still a little hesitant to put their money where their mouth is in terms of an actual urban rail plan in Austin. That's not to say they aren't working on it, but it's a very uphill battle.

That's the political price that Indy is going to pay if they build the NE Corridor first. Forget all the good will of increased headways and higher ridership for the rest of the system. Charlotte has shown that people won't remember you for your increased ridership. I'm guessing that before the 1998 sales tax increase, Charlotte was in a similar place as Indianapolis is now. But the opposition picked apart the half cent mercilessly and focused on the train. Luckily the train was a success and Charlotte saved their half cent sales tax from repeal, but the attack was on right away. So in a place like Indy where people are much more afraid of taxes for these types of expenditures, if you're going to build a line, do it right or that cheap victory is going to end up being an expensive long term defeat.

But where should the line go? Well let's look at Austin's 37,000 expected ridership year 2000 alignment or Houston's line that passes 290,000+ jobs or even Phoenix which hits the major downtown corridor and Arizona State. It's about the job connections. These lines connected jobs to people. So where are Indy's jobs?

Looking at LEHD data from On the Map, we can see that employment is clustered around the CBD and State complex. The University is a major employer as well to the west of the downtown cluster with the big red dot. (Red = 10k jobs)


But take a look at where the Red line goes, which is the Northeast Corridor. The yellow line is my idea of where a transit corridor should be. And while there are is a fake BRT corridor that goes where the Yellow line is on the map above, it won't get the same type of TOD investment and revitalization they are hoping for unless they rig the headways really high to 5-10 minutes for Rapid service all day or build dedicated lanes for rail or bus.

But the other reason I think that Yellow line is key is because if you look at where the downtown workers actually live at densities that might warrant transit capacity like that, it's not on that red line but up the yellow one. Again LEHD data:

You could also make a strong case for the light rail line if it were a bit north on the West side and crossed downtown and hit the University. While the commuter rail line might be a good idea for a mature transit system, it's future political suicide for expansion prospects. The reason being is that the region is not going to get any worthwhile excitement in terms of sheer ridership numbers for a starter rail line. Houston got ~40,000 riders to start. Charlotte got ~16,000 riders to start and Phoenix is at ~35,000 by connecting major destinations on the corridors. If this line is like Austin and so far its looking like that is the case, I'm going to bet on an anemic 500-2000 riders at most.

Again that is a short term win looking for a long term loss. If I were Indy, I would start pushing hard to have that North BRT line dedicated ROW, or do a tram-train to Noblesville. The tram-train is likely to get killer ridership and suburban support. There is the benefit of learning from those who have gone before and made the mistakes. No need to make them again so that you're hamstrung into the future. I'm all for trains as people who have read this site over the years know, but do it right, or don't do it at all.

Thursday Night Notes: Fake Trolleys and Blown Up Ridership Estimates

These articles are from a few days ago but I wanted to clear my tabs and get some opinions.

Ogden is going to spend some money on buses that they hope will stimulate streetcar ridership. While I've been impressed with the Broadway Shuttle in Oakland that recently started running given the short headways and fast access to Specialties bakery and Bakesale Betty from City Center, I have to wonder if people honestly think they are going to get a real estimate from these faux trolleys. (Calling them trolleys is a whole other can of worms I could get into in another post) It's understandable to want to know what is going to happen and spending less money to do it. But I'm convinced that given the completely different experience, you're almost dooming any streetcar to death by running the fake trolleys, especially if the headways are limited. Would like to hear more on this from others though.
~~~
I know we have to make ridership estimates for capital projects. Until recently ridership estimates made or broke your ability to build projects. So color me annoyed that Denver finally gets around to updating the regional land use estimates that boost ridership for the Fastracks plan. Should we think this estimate is correct? No. Ridership estimates will always be horrific when done using software built for estimating auto trips. Should Denver have gotten more federal money for the program? Yes. Given they are already underwater paying for it, why didn't they try to fix this earlier and get more than 20% from the Feds? Were they just lazy?

Regions that are doing these massive projects like LA, Seattle, Denver, Houston, and Salt Lake City should get more help from the feds. They have a plan and are moving forward with it. It's likely that these types of network expansions that make up the Transit Space Race will give more bang for the buck than one off single line expansions.
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Here's an interesting article sent in by reader David. I'm always amazed at the different issues that places like Vancouver are dealing with than the majority of the United States in terms of ridership and development pressure along transit lines.
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Finally, there are tons of academic journals out there. They make you pay for their products and don't really care if only a few academics read them. But there's always interesting things to be found. Here are some links to Elsivier journals with a barrel of research on transport issues you all might care about. If you're RSS junkies like me, put them in your reader.

On Gentrification, Supply, and Expansion

Living in the bay area can be particularly maddening. Even if you're working hard and making a good living, you are likely to still not be able to afford a house in the neighborhood of your choice. The reason being its so hard to build anywhere without coming up against NIMBYs and people that already have theirs. Take the BRT disaster where Berkeley rejected even doing the study for dedicated lanes in the city limits. It seems like progress is just a step away but defeat is often snatched from the jaws of victory.

I sometimes wonder why we can't just build more dense housing in employment districts or places where NIMBYs don't exist. There's a huge supply of land in these areas of San Jose with parking lots that could use serious transit infrastructure expansion. But the fact of the matter is that areas that are really desirable and dense are for the most part built out, and since they are built out their cost continues to increase dramatically because people really want to live there and there is a limited supply.

Take for example the Mission in San Francisco. For many years it was a lower income neighborhood known for its culture but over time transitioned. There are still vestiges of this in the compact and livable urban environment, but now the hipsters have come. I'm not sure that's a bad thing per say but we've seen this story before. Certain parties populate an urban neighborhood and then others follow until it becomes upper class, it gentrifies/yuppifies (a good read here on this subject). This end state of neighborhoods is seen as awful for the folks that were pushed out, but it is also seen as progress for the city as buildings get painted and the garden flowers are potted. This very end state of the process or "Starbucks Urbanism" is what becomes the mark of progress for those seeking it.

The problem however I see with this is not the end state per say, but the fact that the process has to happen at all. The biggest issue I have with the gentrification claim is that it can be rendered useless if we actually supplied housing for the actual market for housing. I know this is a claim long pushed by the planners and CNU set, but there's actually something behind the idea that we've overproduced single family housing and under produced urban types. What we've seen in urban neighborhoods with good bones over the last decade or so is a transformation based on lack of opportunity to improve without pushing out the middle.

But I do see a possible opportunity in the massive expansion plans that exist due to the transit space race to improve without pushing away. With multi-line expansion plans in places like Los Angeles, Denver, and Seattle, so many stations will be brought on line, the market won't be able to get to them all at once. One of the major benefits and worries of these new transit lines is that they will bring increased property values and push out existing communities. While this will provide better mobility to many of these areas, it's not likely to bring wholesale change to each of them. But it does start to provide opportunities for building housing that starts to change the urban vs. suburban market, without focusing it all on one close in neighborhood such as what has been happening in smaller regions that build transit over the last boom. We'll see what happens, but this is the theory I have.

St. Louis Kinda Back in the Transit Space Race

I haven't talked about the transit space race in a while because not a lot of big news has been happening. That and I've been a bit busy lately. But tonight a huge event took place in which a half cent sales tax was passed to better bus service and build light rail extensions to other parts of the St. Louis region, building off of one of the great light rail success stories in this country.

Yonah over at Transport Politic drew a map earlier this year of what the increase could help build over a 30 year period, though some of it is a bit wishful thinking because while $75 million a year is a lot of money, it's not the same as say Measure R's $40B in Los Angeles. But what it also did is trigger a City of St. Louis tax that was approved in 1997, raising an additional quarter cent, valued by some at around $8 million per year.

I hope that they increase the bus service much more because currently the service is subpar. This infusion hopefully allows them to fix that and move forward. I'm hopeful that the anti-tax sentiment out there didn't get to this plan and transit marches forward. Even sweeter in Wendell Cox's backyard.

Movement Depression and the Way Forward

It's been a bit rough lately. With the economy in the tank and people not wanting to spend any money, I've had great hope that some places were continuing to move forward with their urban rail plans. But the opponents fight harder than ever because they see the threat or people don't plan things enough to go forward with any confidence. Just today, the list of articles that show how hard we have to keep working was a bit much for me to handle.

Houston - The Mayor questions whether there is money to pay for two lines of the new five line light rail expansion in the city.

Austin - The Mayor decides its not time to have a bond election to pay for a future urban rail line.

Scotland - The company building Edinburgh's tram wants to delay 30 months after the rough ride they have already had.

Tampa - Ballot issue for rail dead for now due to lack of decision in how much of the funding would go to the rail project.

Bellevue: The city council is a bunch of morons there and don't want to run the line through a dense employment center.

There is a ray of hope out there. The Mayor of Los Angeles made me feel a bit better recently when he decided that he was going to ask to get things done faster. Ask for a loan so you can save billions in construction costs and have something built for your money faster. I would like to think that is how we work in the United States. But sometimes reading all the news I do just gets so depressing. At least someone has suggested a way forward. Whether we follow it or not is up to us.

Take Off!

That's the loud phrase I used to hear from one of my college track coaches, Bubba Thornton, during races urging me and my teammates to move faster. A similar call was made by UTA's (That's Utah Transit Authority, Not Univ of Texas at Arlington) John Inglish when he spoke before the Banking Committee Friday. This time however, it was a call to speed up the New Starts program.

Inglish and UTA however somewhat gamed the system when they got the federal government to pay 80% of the Mid Jordan Line and a piece of the Draper Line if UTA constructed three lines by themselves. This meant that the other three lines didn't have to wait a huge amount of time while costs escalated and people complained. Here's the wording of the MOU from the FTA:

In August 2007, FTA and UTA executed a Memorandum of Understanding to set forth their mutual expectations for Federal financial participation in two of five projects that comprise UTA’s “Transit 2015 Program.” UTA was seeking a combined $570 million in Section 5309 New Starts funding for the Mid-Jordan and Draper LRT extensions. In return, UTA made a commitment to build, by 2015, the West Valley City and Airport LRT extensions, as well as the South Front Runner (commuter rail) extension without Federal financial assistance. The current total capital cost estimate for the five projects in the Transit 2015 Program is $2.85 billion.

That's a pretty good deal. And UTA is having a better time than their counterparts in Denver who decided to wait to buy up existing rail lines. I'm not a huge fan of using existing rail lines unless they go exactly where you want to go, but UTA bought up 175 miles worth for $185 million dollars back in 2002. With the Fastracks plan, the railroads can pretty much get away with murder and seem to be trying.

But all of this points to the need for the FTA and DOT to start thinking strategically about regions that don't want to build systems line by line. Fixing the new starts program such as Congressman Oberstar wants to is great (PDF 42), but it still isn't a holistic look at how to provide support for regions that are going for more than one line at a time. I'm sure there are some other programs that allow regions to program funding, but I'd like to see the feds take a look at directly enabling this type of expansion. Obviously there are a lot of regions with a lot of expansion needs, and if they are going to succeed and not waste any money, they need to speed it up.

Transit Space Race Continues

Atlanta and Charlotte are still fighting it out on the pages of the AJC.

“We could’ve easily become a Knoxville, Greensboro or Richmond,” McCrory said. “Instead we compete, fortunately, with Denver, Dallas and Atlanta.”

Charlotte, the Queen City, maintains pretensions of one day surpassing Atlanta as economic King of the South. Sam Williams, head of Atlanta’s Chamber of Commerce, says dream on.

“We don’t really compete tooth-and-nail with Charlotte because the companies we go after (are) in the international trade, logistics and biomedical fields and they’re not looking to go to Charlotte,” he said. “Dallas, Tampa and northern Virginia — those are our consistent competitors.”

But some observers say recent missteps by Atlanta — over traffic, transit, water, the environment and politics — may enhance Charlotte’s position.

How you plan your region will make a difference in its competitiveness for the future. While Atlanta might blow off Charlotte, I wouldn't be so quick to cast them off.

New Leasebacks?

Houston Metro signed a $600 million contract to build 4 of its 5 planned light rail lines. The total cost would be almost $1.5 billion and would include a 29 LRV order from Spanish manufacturer CAF which built LRV's for Pittsburgh and Sacramento. Perhaps they got a better price(Probably not at $4 M a vehicle) but wouldn't you want all of your vehicles to be the same so spare parts are easier to come by? Currently Houston uses the Siemens S70 Avanto we've been talking about alot here recently. It's not like they couldn't have hopped on Salt Lake City's order. In fact, at that price, they could have saved $13.6 Million

But the dumbest thing I think I've seen is for a transit agency to do a leaseback deal when many of them have almost lost thier shirts recently because of the AIG collapse. Really guys?

The transit agency also will rely on $150 million in lease-back agreements to help get the first phase of the project under way. The lease agreements allow agencies like Metro to sell railcars, buses and other assets to banks and lease them back at a lower cost. The banks then can claim depreciation of the assets in tax deductions.

This seems like a whole lot of bad decision making rolled up into this project. More expensive LRVs and possibly bad bank deals during a time when banking isn't exactly healthy.

Meeting Hints at Greater Transit Funding from Obama Administration

I was reading through an article on Mayor Ralph Becker snagging stimulus money for Salt Lake City and noticed a passage that stood out near the bottom:

Becker on Friday also huddled with Obama's Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, whom the mayor says suggested Salt Lake City's transit plans dovetail with the White House's so-called Livable Communities Initiative. There is "no question" that will translate to a bigger Beltway bankroll in the future for streetcars and a downtown TRAX circulator, Becker said.

Salt Lake City has a massive plan for expansion that includes five new transit lines and they have started recently talking about streetcars. I've seen a number of different livable communities initiatives in the past including an old FTA version and one from when Al Gore was Vice President but hadn't heard of a current one. Has anyone else heard of this initiative? I know LaHood mentioned it in his confirmation hearings but we haven't heard many more details except on the White House Urban Policy Page it states:

Build More Livable and Sustainable Communities: Our communities will better serve all of their residents if we are able to leave our cars to walk, bicycle and access other transportation alternatives. President Obama will re-evaluate the transportation funding process to ensure that smart growth considerations are taken into account.

If this is what the Obama administration is going to follow, we can see Mayor Becker's comments as a sign that they could be looking to act on it. Let's hope they do.

Metroplex Residents Want Rail Too

Utah residents on the Wasatch Front are looking for expansion in transit while those in the Dallas Fort Worth are as well. Fortworthology has more:

This is big news for the Rail North Texas proposal: a new survey shows that 85% of voters surveyed support the regional rail plan

Norfolk Officially Enters Transit Space Race

Sure they don't have funding but they are building their first line and have big plans for a regional transit network chock full of commuter rail, light rail, express buses and more. That's right Norfolk Virginia, the 34th largest metropolitan area by population just ahead of Charlotte, Providence, Milwaukee and Austin.

It looks like about 4 light rail extensions would be planned and commuter rail that would stretch to Richmond. The thought that they would shift monies to transit away from highway projects would be huge as well. It looks as if regions are starting to figure it out.

Robert Case, a transportation engineer who manages the study for the Hampton Roads Metropolitan Planning Organization, said there is growing political interest in shifting resources from highway projects to transit. He said such a shift would be a "sea change" and would require changes in land use and funding priorities.

The plan calls for creating higher-density and mixed-use development patterns in some areas to support an expanded transit network.

Slow Ride

The time frame for all transit projects are too slow in this country. Why would the Subway to the Sea be any different?

Mental Block

I took a some heat a few days ago for saying that Atlanta is falling behind. Even though they have more transit and have a big plan, other cities seem to actually be "doing" rather than just talking. But its also an issue of regional mentality. I've seen a lot of these articles over the last few years and the feeling that nothing is getting done while other cities are building makes the fact that they are already ahead not so much of a consolation. And this doesn't help either:

Olens said plum employers with skilled jobs are slipping away. “In the last two years, I’ve had two major corporations tell me they would not move their headquarters to the Cobb Galleria area because all we had are buses,” Olens said this week.

The fact that there is little movement is well known to leaders that want to move forward in Atlanta, and there are many. But it seems as if no one with the political will wants to push.

“I continue to be frustrated that we can’t seem to move in that direction,” said Sam Olens, chairman of the Atlanta Regional Commission and the Cobb County commission. “We’re losing our competitive advantage.”

Two years ago, the Metro Atlanta Chamber of Commerce invited reporters to hear officials from Phoenix and other cities talk about their new transportation initiatives. The message was clear: Atlanta and Georgia could be left in the dust.

On Wednesday, Sam Williams, president of the chamber, said in a statement that “cities that have made transportation a priority, like Phoenix, Dallas and Charlotte, continue to leapfrog Atlanta with respect to regional mobility. … While these areas make progress, we seem choked in congestion with little leadership to get us out.”

Space Race Poll Result: Dallas Fort Worth Region

So it looks like we have a winner. You all believe that the next region to up the ante in the Space Race will be Dallas/Fort Worth. Now my North Texas friends will kill me for not putting Fort Worth in the poll with Dallas, but we all know which city is cooler. It looks though like the Norfolk region was a close second. It will be interesting to see what happens there as well.

So the new poll will be up soon.

New Poll: Newest Member of the Transit Space Race

Ok, since there were a lot of poll requests today, we're going to do another week long poll. I liked all the ideas that were posted and I'll try to get to all of them in some form or fashion. So here's today's poll. What will be the next city to pass a tax or figure out a way to generate massive revenue to expand their system multiple lines and enter the Transit Space Race?

Poll is below the pantograph picture again.

Here are the choices:

Atlanta - They have a concept 3 idea, but no money to fund it as of yet.
Austin - Planning for years, commuter rail and light rail ideas on the table
Norfolk - They are constructing their first LRT line and the new Mayor of Virginia Beach is getting excited about extensions
Raleigh Durham - They have a plan but no huge cash to play with
Sacramento - Having discussions, problems too.
St. Louis - Just missed the half cent this last time, next time better?
Tampa - Mayor Pam is on a roll lately
Cincinnati - Building a Streetcar soon, but will they be tough enough for more?
Columbus - Will they beat thier neighbor Cinci for faster expansion?
Detroit - Planning for light rail on Woodward is underway, will there be a funding source larger than TIFs?
Madison - They have a plan too, but is an RTA forthcoming?
Milwaukee - They just passed a transit operations fund, Capital coming?
Dallas - They are already expanding fast, but will they get a regional commuter rail plan together?

So there you have it, if there is another city that should be in the mix, you'll have to vote other, and leave a comment about which one I missed.

Left Behind

As the Transit Space Race heats up, there will be winners, and there will be losers.

Atlanta has missed the boat on public transportation compared with some other cities, said the president of a national mass transit organization. Now that more people are driving less, the consequences could be grave. “You’ll get left in the dust,” said William Millar, president of the American Public Transportation Association....

...Millar pointed to cities like Charlotte, Denver and Salt Lake City that are building or expanding their mass-transit systems. He said they will be able to draw more employers with good jobs and offer a better quality of life.

Transit Space Race Update

With the elections in yesterday it was time to update the Transit Space Race. Seattle moved into the top tier while St. Louis dropped a division. Kansas City dropped into the hopeless category until they can work up another plan. I'm going to update Atlanta and Hawaii soon but need to get some more info for them. Atlanta will be in the hopefuls league while we await further developments and Hawaii will be in tier one planning. Check the plans down at the bottom right of the blog.

Transit Election Results Central

So I don't clog anyone's Feed Reader I'm going to keep all the live-blogging within this one post. So keep it bookmarked and come back frequently for timestamped updates all in Pacific Time. Scroll down for deeper results than the top live blog.

Update 2:28 AM PT - So I get in bed and am about to shut my computer down when Measure R jumps to 97% complete! 67.3% looks great!

Update 2:04 AM PT - I have a flight to NC in the morning so I'm packing it in. Currently HSR is leading by a good amount and Measure R looks like it might pass as well. Hawaii looks good but I don't know where those missing precincts are and if they are pro-Mufi/pro-Rail. Measure B is a tough sell though. All in all it was a good night for transit. As I said earlier, Missouri was the only loser out of all of them. And when I get back, I'll put Seattle back on the Space Race list.

Update 1:42 AM PT - It looks like Missouri is just anti-transit. Everywhere else "won" even if they didn't win. ie: 66% is a really annoying threshold.

Update 1:32 AM PT - Measure R and HSR are looking good. The BART measure is really close teetering over and under the 66% it needs.

Update 12:53 AM PT - It's a pretty safe bet to say that KK (Requiring a vote to take away car lanes for transit) went down in flames while VV (AC Transit Parcel Tax) passed with a wide margin of error. The complete results are not in yet, but its probably fair to say it passed.

Update 12:42 AM PT - Sonoma Marin seems to have passed their commuter rail line. With three precincts left, it's at 69% which means its likely to pass the 66% mark.

Update 12:36 AM PT - It looks as if the transit tax passed in all New Mexico Counties. Rail Runner and possibly a streetcar in Albuquerque.

Update 12:23 AM PT - HSR is going strong at 52% With 61% reporting

Update 11:48 PM PT - Honolulu up almost 53% with 76% in

Update 11:46 PM PT - Aspen Returns are in. Yes for BRT There.

Update 11:31 PM PT - All of the returns are in for Marin so we'll have to wait for Sonoma. They both have to total 66%. Marin is 63% currently and Sonoma is 73%. HSR is really close at 52% For.

Update 11:02 PM PT - It's official, no Space Race Expansion for St. Louis. Measure M goes down by 51- 49. A close race for sure.

Update 10:38 PM PT - It looks like Light Rail in Seattle will pass and Streetcars have passed in West Sacramento. High Speed Rail is in a tight race and AC Transit looks to raise a parcel tax while KK, the anti-BRT measure looks like its getting shot down.

Update 10:17 PM PT - Looks like Milwaukee has a new source of money for transit. The electricity in the streets here is amazing as I just walked down Valencia street and cars were honking horns and people were biking and yelling on the street.

Update 9:52 PM PT - It looks good in New Mexico. We might see more Commuter Rail and a Streetcar there soon.

Update 9:04 PM PT - Prop 1 in Seattle Looks good so far.

Update 8:20 PM PT - We're starting to see West Coast Measures. Coming fast and Furious.

Update 7:57 PM PT - Missouri measures are looking bad.

Update 7:25 PM PT - It's good for Obama but rough out there for the transit measures. All are hovering around 50%. I don't know what parts of the counties these are in but New Mexico looks strong.

Update 6:47 PM PT - Starting to come in but slowly.

Update 5:41 PM PT - Results are going to be slow since we're working mostly on the West Coast. Wisconsin and St. Louis will probably be some of the first results we get so I'm keeping closer tabs on those.

Wheeee!!! Here we go...

Breakin it down below:

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St. Louis Proposition M - A half cent sales tax for Metrolink Operations and Expansion Results Below (LOSS)

Update 1: 3:43 PT - No Results Up Yet
Update 2: 50.2% No (1% in)
Update 3: 51% No (16% in)
Update 4: 52% No (44% in)
Update 5: 52% No (86% in)
Update 6: 51% No (93% in)
Update 7: Measure M Lost 51% No

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Kansas City - Question 1 Light Rail (LOSS)

A 3/8 cent sales tax to build and operate a starter light rail line.

Update 1: 4:46 PM PT - No Results Yet
Update 2: 6:41 PM PT - 59% No 0% In
Update 3: 7:27 PM PT - 54% No (40% in)
Update 4: 7:49 PM PT - 56% No (84% in)
Update 5: 8:02 PM PT - 56% No (96.7%)
Update 6: 8:47 PM PT - 57% No (97%)

It looks like Kansas City burned its chance for light rail. A shame really.

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Milwaukee Wisconsin - Sales Tax Increase (WIN)

A ballot measure that would increase the sales tax by a half cent to pay for transit service among other services.

Update: 4:55 PM PT - No Results Yet
Update 2: 6:43 PM PT - 53% No (1% in)
Update 3: 7:10 PM PT - 52% No (2% in)
Update 4: 7:21 PM PT - 50.1% Yes (3%)
Update 5: 7:34 PM PT - 54% Yes (19%)
Update 6: 7:52 PM PT - 54% Yes (38%)
Update 7: 8:04 PM PT - 54% Yes (42%)
Update 8: 8:49 PM PT - 53% Yes (71%)
Update 9: 9:07 PM PT - 53% Yes (76%)
Update 10: 9:33 PM PT - 53% Yes (86%)
Update 11: 10:17 PM PT - 52% Yes (94%)

It looks like we can probably put this one to bed.

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Santa Fe/Albuquerque - A quarter cent sales tax to bring Rail Runner into Santa Fe from Albuquerque and provide transport funding for local agencies. The Abq Streetcar could get a jump start from this source. (WIN)

4 Counties of Results
Valencia | Bernalillo | Sandoval | Santa Fe

Update 1: 3:44 PT - No Results Up Yet
Update 2: 7:15 PT - 52.9% For (Bernalillo County Absentee Only)
54 % For (Sandoval County Absentee Only)
Update 3: Valencia County 62% For (Unknown)
Update 4: 9:45 PT Bernalillo up to 53.5% For with 66% or so in
Santa Fe 52.7% For
Valencia County 61% For

All counties have come in for the Transit Tax.

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CALIFORNIA SUBSET
From North to South

West Sacramento - Measure U Streetcar (WIN)

A half cent transportation sales tax that would in part pay for streetcar service across the river to the city.

Update 1: 5:15 PM PT - No Results Up Yet
Update 2: 8:24 PM PT - 63% Yes (0% in)

It looks like this has passed.

Sonoma Marin - SMART Rail (WIN)

Would build and operate a commuter rail line from Larkspur North. MUST HAVE 66% in the counties combined. Last time it just barely missed passing.

Update1: 4:22 PM PT - No Results Up Yet
Update 2: 10:22 PM PT - Marin 62% For (67% in) Needs 66% to pass
Sonoma 70% For (40% in) Needs 66% to pass
Update 3: 10:51 PM PT - Marin 62% For (97% in)
Update 4: 11:14 PM PT - Sonoma 73% For (52% in)
Update 5: 11:28 PM PT - Marin 63% For (100%) This means that Sonoma needs to bring it up to 66%. It looks like it might be able to.

Update 6: 11:51 PM PT - Sonoma 73% (68% in)
Update 7: 12:46 AM PT - Sonoma 73.5% (100% in)

If i'm correct, this adds up to 69% in both counties which means it wins.

Oakland/Berkeley - 2 Measures

Measure VV would give AC Transit a parcel tax increase to fund operations. Measure KK would require a vote to change street priority from cars to HOV, BRT, or other street running motorized dedicated transportation.

Update 1: 4:15 PM PT - No Results Up Yet
Update 2: 8:27 PM PT - 78% No on KK (0% in)
Update 3: 8:28 PM PT - 68% Yes on VV (o% in)
Update 4: 11:23 PM PT - 69% Yes on VV (10% in)
79% No on KK (4% in)

Update 5: 12:09 AM PT - VV 71% Yes (66% in)
KK 76% No (77% in)

At this point we can probably say that KK got shot down while VV passed.


San Jose - Measure B BART to San Jose (MUST HAVE 66% to pass)

An 1/8th cent measure to operate an extension of BART to San Jose.

Update 1: 4:28 PM PT - No Results Up Yet
Update 2: 8:34 PM PT - 65.6% Yes (Partial Results)
Update 3: 11:54 PM PT - 66% (37% in)
Update 4: 12:15 AM PT - 65.7% (46% in)

Californa Full - Prop 1A High Speed Rail

Float $10B in bonds to build High Speed Rail between San Francisco and Los Angeles

Update 1: 4:36 PM PT - No Results Yet
Update 2: 8:32 PM PT - 51% Yes (5% in)
Update 3: 9:37 PM PT - 51% No (14% in)
Update 4: 10:23 PM PT - 51% No (22%)
Update 5: 10:43 PM PT - 51% For (31%)
Update 6: 11:06 PM PT - 51% For (35%)
Update 7: 11:21 PM PT - 51% For (38% in)
Update 8: 11:27 PM PT - 52% For (43% in)
Update 9: 12:05AM PT - 51% For (50% in)
Update 10: 12:21 AM PT - 52% For (58%)
Update 11: 1:20 AM PT - 52% For (70%)
Update 12: 1:34 AM PT - 52% For (75%)
Update 13: 2:04 AM PT - 52% For (83%)


Los Angeles - Measure R (MUST have 66% to pass)

A half cent sales tax that would pay for an expansion of transportation such as light rail and subway.

Update 1: 4:37 PM PT - No Results Yet
Update 2: 8:18 PM PT - 64% Yes (10% in)
Update 3: 10:29 PM PT - 65% Yes (16% in)
Update 4: 10:46 PM PT - 65.9% Yes (23%)
Update 5: 11:06 PM PT - 66.3% Yes (29%)
Update 6: 11:44 PM PT - 66.3% Yes (44%)
Update 7: 12:04 AM PT - 66.5% Yes (51%)
Update 8: 12:50 AM PT - 66.9% Yes (64%)
Update 9: 1:07 AM PT - 67% Yes (70%)
Update 10: 1:25 AM PT - 67.2% Yes (77%)
Update 11: 1:43 AM PT - 67.3% Yes (83%)
Update 12: 2:04 AM PT - 67.3% Yes (90%)
Update 13: 2:28 AM PT - 67.3% Yes (90%)

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Honolulu Hawaii - Steel on Steel Rail Election

An election to decide whether to move forward with a steel on steel rail line.

Update 1: 4:44 PM PT - No Results Yet
Update 2: 10:48 PM PT - 52% Yes (28% in)
Update 3: 11:49 PM PT - 52% Yes (76% in)

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Seattle - Prop 1 Sound Transit Expansion (WIN)

A ballot measure to increase the sales tax to pay for expanded regional light rail and bus service.

Update 1: 4:49 PM PT - No Results Yet
Update 2: 8:17 PM PT - Snohomish County 55% For (100% In)
Update 3: 10:33 PM PT - Looks like ST2 is passing in all 3 counties. In King by 60%
Update 4: 12:31 AM PT - 58% passing with 335,000 votes cast

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Aspen - Prop 4A Bus Rapid Transit (WIN)

A ballot measure that would increase the sales tax by a .3% to pay for bus rapid transit expansion.

Update: 5:13 PM PT - No Results Yet
Update: 10:36 PM PT - 52% with 2 districts left to vote
Update: 11:47 PM PT - Prop 4A Wins

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If I'm missing something let me know.

The Stakes of Stim

In track when teammates of mine used to get stim it was usually attaching wires to their muscles and turning a knob so that electricity would course through and loosen them up. Similar to the knob turn, folks in Congress are looking to pull the lever on a stimulus package to get things going. This idea isn't new. It was what got us through the great depression and built some of the most sturdy bridges, lodges, and infrastructure ever. These days when we build, it seems so cheap. We're always looking for shortcuts, but we shouldn't be doing that this time. We should be investing in our future, and hopefully it's a green one.

In Portland, city officials are already preparing lists of infrastructure projects they might launch with an infusion of federal money. It would be a nice silver lining for Portland if the economic crunch bought a refurbished bridge over the Willamette, or a streetcar extension.

This would be a big boon for cities that have projects ready to go. As I said in an earlier post, it will be a huge deal for cities like LA and Seattle to pass their transit measures. Salt Lake City, Denver, Portland, and Houston already have a lot of engineering done for their new lines and if infused with stim, they could push that money to other transit projects to extend thier networks furthering the gap between them and those which are falling further behind.

If for instance Seattle drops the ball, it will be harder for them to seek stim money for projects that were rejected on a ballot measure. Though it might be a boon for thier streetcar infrastructure, regional transit might suffer from a crisis in confidence where opponents claim the win and the upper hand in cash direction. With the stakes so high for federal funding opportunity, it's important that these measures pass, else an opportunity that happens once in a century to double up on much needed transit capital spending could be lost.